North Carolina Presidential Primary Poll, May 1-3, 2007

[Full Disclosure: I don't like John Edwards, and I'm not even a Democrat.]

Just came across this recent NC poll that may or may not have been diaried here already.  If it was, I missed it. And I'm around a good bit, so it seems safe to assume that others missed it too.

The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a group I know nothing about. The article about the poll is posted on WRAL-TV's website. Their filename ends in FredThompsonPoll, and their misleading headline reads, "Thompson Gaining Support Among State Voters," leading me to wonder if the poll wasn't sponsored by the Thompson camp. (Misleading because 'state voters' weren't polled about Thompson, only state Republicans.) Regardless, the poll included voters from both parties, asking NC Democrats about the Democratic candidates and NC Republicans about the Republican candidates.

Given that NC is one of Edwards' home states, I consider the Democratic results to be of most interest....

Edwards is the top choice among NC Democrats, but not by much, leading Hillary 33% to 27% in a poll with a 4% margin of error. Obama trails the other two leading candidates with 20%. Another 10% of NC Democrats would prefer a different candidate, and 10% are undecided.

These results are about what I would expect at this point.  Edwards holds the home court advantage; Bill was very popular among NC Dems, and Obama is still mostly a question mark here.  I found the demographic breakouts to be of more interest:

Gender

Edwards' support is slightly stronger among men (34%) than women (32%); Obama slightly better among women (22%) than men (18%).  Hillary plays much better among NC Democratic women (32%) than NC Democratic men (20%). Too bad they couldn't do a second level of crosstabs (Gender x Race). That would no doubt tell many tales.

Race

To me, these are the most predictable results, except for Other. Hillary does equally well among black and white NC Dems (28%); Obama cleans up among black NC Dems (42%); does poorly among white NC Dems (12%).  Edwards is the opposite...he has strong support from white NC Dems (40%), but not much from black NC Dems (13%).

I don't know what to make of Other, because I'm not sure who they are.  Latinos? I don't know where any of the candidates stand on immigration. "Others" sure don't care much for Hillary (8%). Could be her immigration policy, could be her strong stand on a woman's right to chose, could be both. They are middlin' on both Edwards and Obama (29% and 22%).

Age

Both Clinton and Edwards are polling quite well among young NC Dems (44% and 40%, respectively), Obama not so well (12%). Interesting that the older NC Democrats show limited enthusiasm for any of the three candidates, and post the highest numbers when it comes to remaining undecided or preferring another candidate altogether.

If I were Hillary's campaign manager and believed that the nominee is actually selected by primary voters, I would be concerned about the extent to which her support is so heaviley skewed toward young Democrats, for a number of reasons.  But I'm not and I don't.

Area Code

Wow, it's hard to know what to make of these data. NC is a political patchwork, with some of its most left-leaning enclaves surrounded by large swaths of right-leaning real estate. Its area codes don't really break out by political leanings. Makes me wonder if the people who designed the study knew much about the political landscape here.  

I think the forces at play here are mostly Dixiecrat versus not (a far more important division in the South than centrist versus progressive) and insider versus grassroots.  In NC, as in many other states, "insider" tends to equal "corrupt." My best guess is that the 704 area code represents the Corrupt Insider wing of the NC Democratic Party. There are also a bunch of them in the Triangle (919), but the Triangle is more diverse.

Issues

One problem with issues polls is that they only ask which issue is important, never where the voter stands.  So with an issue like the war, it's hard to figure.  Do they support Edwards because he's now strongly in favor of ending the war?  Or because he was one of its architects, and they don't think his apology is sincere? You also don't know if the issues are really that important (or not) to them in an absolute sense, or they simply think that these are the issues that most need addressing at the moment.

Of the three frontrunners, Edwards gets the lion's share of the "moral and family values" voters (33% versus 7% for HRC and 15% for Obama).

The NC Dems who support one of the three frontrunners don't care much about taxes (5-12%); Obama's supporters don't care about immigration, either (5%). Hillary's supporters don't care about moral or family values (7%).

Those who want a different candidate do care about taxes...a lot (65%). They also care about moral and family values (34%), but apparently they don't care much for whatever moral and family values they think the three frontrunners represent. They care about immigration, too (36%).  They also post the highest number for "Other" issues (34%).  Wish I could see that list. They don't care about the war, education, healthcare, or the economy and jobs (0-5%).  Interesting brand of Democrats, aren't they?